For all of you budding David Hackworths and Massus out there, here’s a round up of some of the latest on Iraq, counterinsurgency, and recent events.
War Nerd notes the obvious: Hezbollah’s winning and it spells big trouble for western style militaries, including America’s. His column is unique, not least, because it looks to the broader strategic problem–Israel’s failure to seize the initiative and also its failure to obtain useful intelligence–but it also looks to tactical issues, such as Hezbollah’s fire discipline, its use of advanced dual warhead shaped charges, and other very tactical observations.
Terence Daly reminds us that killing alone won’t win the Iraq war. I know, I know, PC nonsense spouted by the treacherous MSM. Well, unlike most of the Westmoreland reincarnations in the right wing media, he actually participated in a successful part of America’s Vietnam strategy, its village pacification programs. The misnomer that conventional military strategies devised by conventionally trained generals can win wars such as the Iraq war is a false and comforting delusion, often told in the nature of an excuse by generals who lost wars that they had more than ample resources to win. In fact, this attritional approach has lost numerous counterinsurgencies historically, both politically and on the battlefield. The most obvious such failure is the failure of the find-em-and-kill-them strategy in the first half of America’s intervention in Vietnam.
As recognized belatedly in the Army’s new counterinsurgency manual, the key to strategic victory in a counterinsurgency is to win over the host population’s uncommitted populace, both with carrots and sticks. I disagree, however, with Daly’s proposal for a specialized, paramilitarized civilian force akin to the French’s SAS, which was employed to great effect in Algeria. First, such a force would likely have to be custom-designed for any given theater of operations, because of the unique cultural and language requirements for working with the local populace. Second, the alleged need for such a force underestimates the degree to which adequately-trained and augmented conventional forces can get the mission accomplished. In other words, it is better to invest in a few thousand linguists and guys that pick up a National Geographic once in a while than to create a whole new paramilitary force to (further) muck up unity of command. And, three, although such quasi-civilian forces are important in any such campaign, they won’t work in the US. They will demand too much protection in dangerous locales, and the mission conflicts with basic American values and habits, not least our short attention span. In short, we’re not good imperialists and likely never will be. Better for the Army to train to pull its punches and gather local intelligence than to build up a brand new force that would have little role outside of the war in Iraq, which will be winding down soon. . . . win, lose, or draw. Incidentally, the winning essay in this month’s Military Review competition agrees with my skepticism about establishing the equivalent of a colonial corps.
Speaking of “hearts and minds,” the President’s own manifest rhetorical failures–not just gaffes, but genuine failures of communication–have now progressed to the point that all of his remaining conservative supporters are starting to jump ship, recognize the debacle that is Iraq, and call for a real change in strategy, coupled with an accounting by the administration. This trend is discussed both in this Washington Post article but also this John Fund editorial.
As an aside, I don’t think the book has yet been written on the differences in Army and Marine strategies in Iraq. On the whole, the Marines have appeared more flexible and more comfortable with the essential mission. This institutional comfort stems at least in part from the widely distributed and venerable Small Wars Manual. The Army, in contrast, has seemingly avoided revisiting and maintaining the lessons of its own counterinsurgency experience, whether from the Indian Wars or Vietnam. Instead, its establishment seems to have always lobbied for operations that involve the kind of warfare it is best at: large scale conventional wars. The most infamous example of this was the foot-dragging in deploying Apaches in the limited war in Kosovo. But this failure of institutional imagination is also apparent in the failure of the Army–whether in CFLCC, CENTCOM, or Tommy Franks’ staff–to prepare adequately for Phase IV of the Iraq War.
The armor-heavy US Army, which reached its most spectacular successes in World War II and the First Gulf War, should ask itself whether those kinds of wars are likely to be repeated. Or, if they are, whether they too may be coupled with post-war challenges of insurgency. The infantry culture of the Marines runs deep, from the chevron of any Lance Corporal to the six months spent at an infantry officers course for all of its officers, even support personnel. Perhaps, for this reason, America will find in the decades to come that preeminent infantry mode of combat, counterinsurgency operations will be dominated by the preeminent infantry force, the United States Marine Corps
22 Aug 2006 at 11:13 am
I have a problem with the notion that Hezbollah “won.” That they managed to survive and not allow Israel retain occupation of their territory are actually pretty meager goals for any army. Lebanon and Hezbollah will take years to recover from the conflict — Israel could easily mount the same offensive again at any moment, or even a bigger one. Israel’s real problem was time, in that the world community would not allow them enough time to achieve their stated goals (not to mention the time they wasted bombing from the sky rather than focusing on ground engagement).
I don’t think Israel really wanted to reaquire southern Lebanon. They wanted the captured soldiers back, and they wanted the Lebanese government or some other force to rein in Hezbollah. Well, I don’t think the soldiers have been released (unless I missed something), but there will be a new military presence in southern Lebanon after all. Hezbollah isn’t disarming, but it won’t be running free like before either.
22 Aug 2006 at 2:46 pm
What would victory look like, Israeli flags flying in Beiruit and the IDF locked into a multi-year counterinsurgency?
Hezbollah’s cadres, missiles, and hostage-POWS are still in its possession. It lost fewer than 500 according to the IDF, far less than the 10:1 kill ratio usually called for in confrontations of conventional and unconventional forces. And Hezbollah’s use of tunnels and bunkers neutralized the Israelis advantage in tanks and air power. To me it’s ‘73 all over again. No, it’s true, Israel won’t be overrun. But Israel may find big swaths of its country uninhabitable due to artillery attacks; and this same threat presents itself from Gaza and the West Bank. More important, in the all important propaganda war, Nasrallah and his Iranian backers emerge as the winner.
It’s a bad day for Israel and only a highly conventional and outdated notion of victory would declare anyone but Hezbollah a victory. When you’re the lightweight and you go ten rounds with the heavyweight, and the heavyweight just decides to go home, you’ve won, even if the fight could conceivably go on much longer and might even end in your defeat.
22 Aug 2006 at 3:06 pm
The “propaganda war” is not a factor in the raw military analysis. Just because people might root for one side and that side has a leader (hiding in another nation) declare victory doesn’t mean a whit to the reality on the ground.
Yes, Hezbollah still has its arms, but it is also harder for Hezbollah to reconstitute the arms it lost than for Israel to do the same. Also, Hezbollah’s vaunted rocket power turned out to be almost completely toothless — thousands of rockets were launched, a mere handful of deaths resulted. The only things Hezbollah had going for it were that it was fighting a defensive war on rough terrain with fanatical troops whose sole idea of victory was to survive. If you define victory by goals achieved, then any military that sets its goals low enough can always claim itself a victor.
Now, millions of dollars will be dedicated to rebuilding infrastructure that could otherwise have been used to fund terrorist plots or arm groups like Hezbollah. It is doubtful that Hezbollah has the strength or the will to launch any kind of offensive action against Israel for at least a year, if not longer. These are positive results from the Israeli perspective. Again, Israel didn’t want to conquer southern Lebanon — they wanted some kind of military force there to strap down Hezbollah. That’s exactly what they’re getting. Sounds like another positive step achieved. Yes, they could have killed more Hezbollah fighters, or lost fewer of their own troops, but these are quibbles in the overall analysis when the body count is as low as it was.
22 Aug 2006 at 3:07 pm
The “propaganda war” is not a factor in the raw military analysis. Just because people might root for one side and that side has a leader (hiding in another nation) declare victory doesn’t mean a whit to the reality on the ground.
Yes, Hezbollah still has its arms, but it is also harder for Hezbollah to reconstitute the arms it lost than for Israel to do the same. Also, Hezbollah’s vaunted rocket power turned out to be almost completely toothless — thousands of rockets were launched, a mere handful of deaths resulted. The only things Hezbollah had going for it were that it was fighting a defensive war on rough terrain with fanatical troops whose sole idea of victory was to survive. If you define victory by goals achieved, then any military that sets its goals low enough can always claim itself a victor.
Now, millions of dollars will be dedicated to rebuilding infrastructure that could otherwise have been used to fund terrorist plots or arm groups like Hezbollah. It is doubtful that Hezbollah has the strength or the will to launch any kind of offensive action against Israel for at least a year, if not longer. These are positive results from the Israeli perspective. Again, Israel didn’t want to conquer southern Lebanon — they wanted some kind of military force there to strap down Hezbollah. That’s exactly what they’re getting. Sounds like another positive step achieved. Yes, they could have killed more Hezbollah fighters, or lost fewer of their own troops, but these are quibbles in the overall analysis when the body count is as low as it was.
22 Aug 2006 at 4:03 pm
Sheik Roach, let me say that your knowledge and understanding of our region is, at best, naive.
Perhaps you should stick to discussing those topics of which you have a modest understanding and grasp.
Now stop acting like an Arab, and leave that to me.
22 Aug 2006 at 10:48 pm
Obviously, I did not intend to triple-post. WTF?
23 Aug 2006 at 4:00 pm
Mr. Markets: “I have a problem with the notion that Hezbollah “won.”
Markets, this the dumbest commentary since you got confused over Congressional Authorization for the Invasion of Iraq. You’ve got neo-con pink paint dribbling from every pore of your commentary.
Mr. Markets: “That they managed to survive and not allow Israel retain occupation of their territory are actually pretty meager goals for any army. Lebanon and Hezbollah will take years to recover from the conflict — Israel could easily mount the same offensive again at any moment, or even a bigger one. Israel’s real problem was time…”
Oh poop. This was all about Bush trying to save his sorry ass.
Bush is a dead man if the Democrats get in…he’ll spend the last 2 years of his tenure defending himself in Congressional hearings for all the lies he’s told the American People to incite them into a no-win war against Islam and behalf of international finance capitalism and Israel.
Israel and Bush had the goal to incite a armed conflict with Syria and Iran to reinvigorate his failing strategy that is all bogged down in the quaqmire in Iran. So Israel and Bush2 were desperately to try and find a way to incite a wider war to derail the possible debacle it’s facing this November.
Israel had no justification for invading Lebanon at all, the mere capture of a couple of soldiers was not anything that justified an invasion. Nor did the destruction of civilian infrastructure and death and maiming of civilians have anything to do with protecting Israel or de-fanging Hezbollah.
Hezbollah was successful in putting up enough of a fight to outlast the time-line that Bush-wackers set for this caper, and inflict enough casualties to scare the IDF back to Israel with their tail between their legs.
Hezbollah did succeed in it’s goal of outing the IDF as the sham paper tiger that it is. The IDF and the nation it guards are cowards and murderers, much more suited to firing machine guns from their tanks at adolescent boys throwing rocks, then they are at fighting armed and an trained MEN like the Hezbollah!
Hezbollah succeeded in blackening Israel’s image as war criminal nation whose military strategy is collective punishment on innocent civilian populations, not much different in policy the what Clinton & Democrats used to accuse Serbia and Milosvic of doing.
Shees…the IDF killed more civilians then Hezbollah. Israel came out with zero friends in this conflict and what little good will it had in the dumpster.
Look for more of this kind of bull from President Lunkhead and his merry band of Likkudniks, who are shaking in their boots at the prospect of a Democrat victory in either house of Congress.
23 Aug 2006 at 5:13 pm
Joe, I am sending a camel to pick you up at the airport in Tehran. Please, our Hezbollah brothers need you.
24 Aug 2006 at 9:02 am
Thanks to Jehovah for Mr. Merkel to speak out against the anti-semitic rants that Mr. Roach continually engages in.
There is only one view on the courageous battle being fought by the Jewish People to defend themselves from the Evil Doers and Terrorists. And that way is God’s way.
Woe to be to Mr. Roach, who voices these unholy ideas on Israel’s mission, and contradicts the Biblical prophesies!
24 Aug 2006 at 9:14 am
James Markels is the voice of reason and dignity in this war against terrorism and the forces that would destroy our way of life.
The terrorists hate us for our love of Democracy. There can be no compromise with terrorism.
Israel is ordained by God to defend itself, whatever the cost! Terorists are Evil Doers. To suggest that anything other then Total War against Islam-o-fascism is possible is to be an apologist for terrorism.
It’s either us or them! America must defend our way of life from those who would destroy us for what we believe in.
25 Aug 2006 at 3:19 pm
This is the best post I can recall reading anywhere where I disagree with the absic premise – to wit that Hizb’Allah won anything worth winning by not losing totally. They got some foreign cheers from “the Arab street”, but their slide in electoral results seems set to continue after their military gelding.
That said, your theory and practice milblogging is first rate and of much value.
25 Aug 2006 at 6:44 pm
Honza: “Hezbollah got some foreign cheers from “the Arab street”, but their slide in electoral results seems set to continue after their military gelding.”
Hezbollah is hardly gelded. It seems more likely that the IDF got it face slapped, and walked away from the fight looking like the coward that everyone knows they are. Nor have I seen anything showing that Hezbollah lost popularity in Lebanon either. Quite the contrary.
However, you are right that Hezbollah is waving it’s flag from the top of pile of rubble. Which of course was the Israeli MAIN goal—to inflict collective punishment on the Lebanese civilian population. We’ve been watching pull this kind of stunt for years in Gaza and the West Bank. They are doing it now for Heaven’s sake!
The main reason that Israel LOST is that it squandered what little goodwill it had on this debacle, not to mention it’s reputation as a fighting force. The media coverage of the suffering of civilians, and the ratio of civilian dead/wounded to Hezbollah dead/wounded makes a joke out of Israel’s LIE that it was not targeting civilians. The latest round of publicity is the piles of unexploded cluster bombs they are finding left over from Israel’s attack.
Maybe Hezbollah didn’t WIN exactly, but it’s clear that Israel LOST it’s credibility, and aside from Bush2 and the US Congress (Which polls tell us the public despises) they’ve got no friends nowhere.
Israel is a criminal nation, founded by war criminals, who makes war on innocent children and women. Their only friend is a drunken lunkhead who got into office by fluke, and the Hillary “Stand by Your Man” wing of the Democrat Party.
27 Aug 2006 at 1:46 am
Joe Populist, you wrote;
“The mere capture of a couple of soldiers…” How warm and empathetic are you!
Debate the outcome as you will, but I daresay the IDF, even with troubles, is not a “paper tiger”. Joe, you just sound like a Jihadist shill with your pro-Hizbollah rhetoric. Hizbollah are thugs and killers- first rate gangsters and well funded usurpers of Lebanese sovereignity.
27 Aug 2006 at 11:30 am
It’s funny how Hoe goes from saying that it’s “dumb” to question the idea of a Hezbollah victory, only to admit a mere two days later, “Maybe Hezbollah didn’t WIN exactly…” And all without an ounce of shame.
If Israel is such a “paper tiger,” Hoe, then why aren’t all the local Arab nations invading? Now’s their chance to push the Jews into the sea! The IDF is weak! Attack! Attack! Or, uh, maybe not.
Once again, Hoe’s fantasies diverge from reality, natch.
27 Aug 2006 at 1:22 pm
Miss Markets: “If Israel is such a “paper tiger,” Hoe, then why aren’t all the local Arab nations invading? Now’s their chance to push the Jews into the sea! The IDF is weak! Attack! Attack! Or, uh, maybe not.”
Oh poop in your pants. Israel has the ATOM BOMB, and the Arabs have nothing but some 1950’s era missiles. End of your argument.
Obviously, you’ve still not gotten over the fact that the last time you wrote about manly-man war stuff, you got your Congressional resolutions mixed up. Do you want me to take you down memory lane on that one?
I say you should limit your commentary to what you are good at…the latest IPOD or cell phone, or maybe review expensive resturants or the latest club fashions down in Georgetown. Leave the war talk to the adult males.
27 Aug 2006 at 1:31 pm
Ms Markets: “Once again, Hoe’s fantasies diverge from reality, natch.”
Chuckle. A Jewish Gay who is a libertarian. You’ve got enough personal inconsistencies for the both of us, and the rest of the blogosphere combined.
Try as you might, you can’t neo-con anyone into believing anything else but that Israel made a war of collective punishment on civilians, not Hezbollah guerillas. They did it because they were too scared of casualties in a ground war fighting man to man. No, it’s a lot easier to lob cluster bombs at crowds of helpless women and children, which is what it did.
Of course, Israel’s intention was to “teach the Lebanese a lesson” for supporting “terrorists”. That’s the same policy they’ve been pursuing against the Palestinans in Gaza and the Left Bank. What did that get them? The Palestinans almost unanimously elected HAMAS!
What Israel did in Lebanon didn’t work. Furthermore it isn’t working for the US in Iraq either.
27 Aug 2006 at 1:39 pm
Jodka: “Joe, you just sound like a Jihadist shill with your pro-Hizbollah rhetoric. Hizbollah are thugs and killers- first rate gangsters and well funded usurpers of Lebanese sovereignity.”
It’s sort of funny for someone who supports a ZIONIST State and justifies Israel’s existance baseed on lunatic interpretations of the Book of Revelations to call ME a Jiadist!
A pox on BOTH your houses! If Israel wants to protect itself, it can do so with the support of the USA. We’ll find out brave and strong the “Jewish People” are without the American Taxpayer footing the bill for their protection.
27 Aug 2006 at 9:00 pm
Oh yes, you’d like to THINK that Israel only hurt Lebanese civilians, because your anti-Semistism runs so deep that, of the two epithets you chose to sling at me, “Jewish” was your first! Naturally, if Israel didn’t hurt Hezbollah, and Hezbollah really “WON,” well, we wouldn’t be having Sheik Nasrallah regretting the whole sordid affair, admitting to the public that he’d have never kidnapped the Israeli soldiers in the first place if he had known the consequences, now would we?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14543465/
Sadly, Hoe, you’re so blinded by homophobia and anti-Semitism that it’s frankly pathetic.
28 Aug 2006 at 10:15 am
Ms. Merkel: “…because your anti-Semistism runs so deep that, of the two epithets you chose to sling at me, “Jewish” was your first!”
Whooo, Whooo…Hull-a-ballooo! Your slip is showing.
28 Aug 2006 at 10:38 am
Mr. Merkel: “…if Israel didn’t hurt Hezbollah, and Hezbollah really “WON,” well, we wouldn’t be having Sheik Nasrallah regretting the whole sordid affair, admitting to the public that he’d have never kidnapped the Israeli soldiers in the first place if he had known the consequences, now would we?”
Oh poop! More of the neo-con from the Fox News/Bush2/Israeli Lobby spin machine.
What N’s statement means is what most of the world has been saying—that Israel had no justification for attacking Lebanon. Border skirmishes like this have been committed by Israel and Hezbollah back and forth for years. Israel was not justified in taking this military action at all.
Of course, all this is merely distraction for the more problematic issue for Israel–why did it make war on innocents instead of the Hezbollah militia who did the attacking.
Merkel, Irael is engaged in a hopeless effort to shovel their horse-manure against the stable of evidence that is overwhelming.
Israel has been making this sort of war against civilians for years in the Palestinan reservations. The only difference is that THIS war was on display on the mainstream media for everyone to see.
Despite the non-stop pro-Israel commentary in the background, the American People saw for themselves the needless suffering that Israel was inflicting on old people, sick people, people so poor they had no money or means of escaping.
The evidence proves this this war was not about Hezbollah at all. I’ll bet dollars against donuts that this war was a vain attempt to incite Syria and Iran to intervene. It was about jumpstarting the “war on terror” that is bogged down in the quaqmire of Iraq. It was about laying the groundwork for an invasion of Iran.
28 Aug 2006 at 2:14 pm
Joe, I’ve warned you now several times to get your act together. Instead, you persist with your paranoid delusions and ad hominems. I’m going to ask you not to comment on my site ever again. I’m also in the process of banning you. Do not respond to this comment.
Do the world a favor: get a brain, develop a conscience, and learn to read and write. And cease commenting on anything until you’ve completed those tasks.
29 Aug 2006 at 6:24 pm
Rebuild America First, by Merle Haggard….the Music Video is playing for free on his website…
http://merlehaggard.com/
Why don’t we liberate these United States,
We’re the ones that need it worst.
Let the rest of the world help us for a change,
And let’s rebuild America first.
Our highways an’ bridges are fallin’ apart:
Who’s blessed an’ who has been cursed?
There’s things to be done all over the world,
But let’s rebuild America first.
Who’s on the Hill and who’s watchin’ the valley?
An’ who’s in charge of it all?
God bless the army an’ God bless our liberty,
And back dump the rest of it all.
Yeah, men in position are backin’ away:
Freedom is stuck in reverse.
Let’s get out of Iraq an’ get back on the track,
And let’s rebuild America first.
Why don’t we liberate these United States,
We’re the ones who need it the most.
You think I’m blowin smoke? Boys it ain’t no joke.
I make twenty trips a year from coast to coast.