The Democrats had two main problems in 2004. They were seen as weak on foreign policy, and they were seen as offensively hostile to middle class values at home, specifically on issues like gay marriage, abortion, and the like.
There is a lot of hand-wringing over Kerry and how he was a bad candidate. But his faults were a reflection of the party’s incoherence on foreign policy and its strong constituencies in favor of the controversial social positions the party has taken. Just as Republicans cannot write off 40% of their base–the religious right–in the interests of courting moderates, Democrats cannot easily jettison feminists, ethnic chauvinist groups, gay rights activists, or the substantial constituency of pacifists in their ranks.
That’s a big problem, though. National security is on people’s minds. While Bush has been widely mocked for appealing to people’s fears, those fears of terorism are rational fears. After all, America was attacked, and others have been apprehended planning similar, horrific attacks. Either party’s candidate must deliver a coherent, compelling case on national security. Both party’s bases are effectively locked up; the Republicans won in 2004 because Bush convinced moderates that the Democrats were out of touch on social issues and that Bush had a greater commitment to national security, backed up by a proven willingness to take action. That is, that he was a leader.
As a patriotic American, this situation concerns me. Whoever is elected President should find his views on natioanl security within some acceptable range, neither end of which leads to significant American decline, or, worse, expedites it. One could imagine a mildly protectionist Democratic party, committed to economic programs to help the poor and working class, environmentalism, a balanced budget, and a realist foreign policy. Such a foreign policy might look something like this:
* It should shore up Democrats as the party of realism and limited interventions. No Iraqs, but no Rwandas and Bosnias either. Until now, itââ¬â¢s been the party of humanitarian intervention, except when US interests are at stake. Now the Republicans are on a worldwide crusading mission in the name of democracy. Democrats should say, ââ¬ÅWeââ¬â¢re all for democracy, and even agree that itââ¬â¢s good to promote it through foreign aid and other nonmilitary means, but itââ¬â¢s rarely the best way to impose it through military action. Compare the successes of Eastern Europe to the relative misery of Iraq.”
* It should promote a limited, reaslism-based defense of multilateralism. Iraq should be employed as an example of why multilateralism is important. Sometimes allies that criticize policy are right; and even if theyââ¬â¢re wrong, itââ¬â¢s hard to win without their help. The effectiveness of multilateral coalitions in the first Gulf War should be contrasted with the problems of the Second.
* It should criticize Bush and the Republicans on tactical grounds, specifically the failure to build up the militaryââ¬â¢s numbers after 9/11, the failure to invest in nuts-and-bolts gear needed to win limited wars against terrorists and their sponsers, and the woeful failure of the Bush administration to reform the intelligence apparatus. Bushââ¬â¢s bestowal of the presidential medal of freedom on the failure-of-a-CIA-director Tenet was the icing on the cake of the administrationââ¬â¢s failures to shake things up when ineffective people screwed up, so long as they showed loyalty to the President.
Conservatives would prefer such a world, one where the two parties were fundamentally patriotic and committed to US national security, and, moreover, had intelligent views and reasonable disagreements about the subject. That is, a world where elections weren’t high-stakes contests where one party was literally out-to-lunch, wishing that we did not have the problems that we do.
But thereââ¬â¢s no way the Democrats will do what I suggest. They believe in multilateralism out of some obsessed regard for procedure as an end in itself, unable to see that France had its own Realpolitik reasons for opposing us on the Iraq war. Their aversion to military spending would not support a big conventional build-up of forces or other necessary military actions, such as CIA/Special Forces actions in unfriendly countries like Syria. And, they instinctually like humanitarian interventionsââ¬âRwanda, Darfurââ¬âand oppose realism-based ones, such as Grenada and Iraq, even when there are humanitarian justifications coexisting with realist ones. Finally, the party’s spokesmen harp on the alleged injustice of the USââ¬âsuch as in Abu Gharib or Guantanamoââ¬âwhen such fall-out is inevitable in any war, and only proves that some heads need to roll for mismanagement, not that weââ¬â¢re on the wrong side.
The Democrats are trapped by these ideological convictions. Like Hamlet or Oedipus, the party is compelled by its deepest and most essential ideological impulses to be as senseless on foreign policy, as it is offensive on domestic policy. Kerryââ¬â¢s confused rhetoric, and Howard Deanââ¬â¢s recent extreme rhetoric, merely reflect the party and its members. Democrats should figure out that it’s not just a matter of picking better candidates; the partyââ¬â¢s base needs to grow up.
10 Jun 2005 at 12:49 pm
Well, frankly, I think the Democrats’ main problem is that they have become LESS ideological. They have no original ideas. In truth, they have become the true conservatives in politics, fighting for the status quo without much intellectual firepower to flesh out why. Their pitch has boiled down to “we will FIGHT for you!” (it’s always fight-fight-fight with them now, as if nobody will take them seriously if their rhetoric doesn’t indicate a willingness to bloody up someone’s nose), but with very little organized thought as to what direction they would be headed or why that direction is any good.
The Republicans, mostly by co-opting several libertarian ideas, have become the party of ideology and progress (or at least have defined what they mean by progress and have taken steps in that direction). The Democrats are stagnant, bereft of a plan or a goal. The DLC used to be their best bet for solid policy proposals, but now that’s been drowned out by the MoveOn/Dean anger-is-the-best-medicine drumbeat that is bound to only lose more elections.
10 Jun 2005 at 12:58 pm
The Dems may be “conservative” in the sense that they are for the status quo – in areas like Social Security, or Tax reform – but many Americans see their positions on social issues and think that they are revolutionaries at worst, or conservatives of social decay at best.
Almost all the real debates on policy and ideology are on different fractions of the right – with nearly every position but outright socialism being represented.
10 Jun 2005 at 1:58 pm
I agree largely with the first paragraph of James’ comments. The Democratic Party has a real problem in that it isn’t seen to stand for anything meaningful; instead, it seems to stand for mere partisanship and special interests, and it’s difficult for Democrats to appeal to a wide portion of the electorate on that basis. I wouldn’t exactly call a sort of blind adherence to status quo liberalism “conservative” philosophically, but I certainly see what James is getting at.
As for the Republicans co-opting certain libertarian ideas, I think there is something to this, but much less than James thinks. Libertarian economic ideas were important components in the Reagan movement and the 1994 capture of Congress. But Reagan successfully blended these elements of his governing philosophy with an appeal to the deeply conservative social values of the South. Today, I think the most important benefit Republicans get when compared to Democrats in people’s minds is that people tend to think Republicans have social values more like their own.
10 Jun 2005 at 3:37 pm
Well, things like school choice, Social Security privatization, and Medical Savings Accounts were all libertarian ideas, and are now regularly bandied about by the Republicans. I think these are quite major co-opts. In addition, considering the profligate nature of Republicans lately, it seems to me that the tax- and budget-cutting portions of the party also hail from libertarian roots rather than conservative ones.
My concern is that the free-trade Democrats are being lost under the MoveOn hysterics. My other concern is that the small-government Republicans are being lost under the social conservatism hysterics. Dare I daydream for a Republican Congress and Democrat President?
10 Jun 2005 at 3:59 pm
I more or less agree with your first paragraph again, I just think it’s the libertarian/social conservative alliance of the 1990s that has been the key to Republican electoral successes, even prior to the more recent national security successes. The question is whether this alliance can hold in the face of certain divisive issues within the party, like immigration.
As for the small government issue, the problem is the profligate spending you mention, not social conservatism. A balance-budgeting Republican party still committed to social conservatism on issues like abortion and the like would not, I think, lose many voters. After all, that’s basically (sure, you can quibble ont he margins regarding certain issues) the party Reagan built.
10 Jun 2005 at 5:29 pm
And frankly, it does not cost the government a lot of money to ban abortion, gay marriage, and the like. Very few of these social issues are necessarily at odds with a small federal government, or even a small state government. Even criminalization of drugs does not require the massive law enforcement apparatus that has been built to pursue that goal.
10 Jun 2005 at 11:33 pm
“Even criminalization of drugs does not require the massive law enforcement apparatus that has been built to pursue that goal.”
Are you kidding?
“I just think it’s the libertarian/social conservative alliance of the 1990s that has been the key to Republican electoral successes, even prior to the more recent national security successes. The question is whether this alliance can hold in the face of certain divisive issues within the party, like immigration.”
I agree with this. Except I don’t see a lot of ideas coming from the social-conservatives. It’s the libertarianism that has given the GOP intellectual vigor. The Democrats simply don’t have anything similar. They had their New Deal, and now it’s old hat.
11 Jun 2005 at 2:12 pm
Correction: It’s “libertarianism” that has given the GOP intellectual vigor on the issues that interest you. There is quite a bit of sophisticated academic-level analysis of homogamy, abortion, easy divorce, and the like that has propelled a principled defense of these necessary social institutions. The genius of conservatism is its reliance on the tried and tested; when progressives begin to assault these established orders, conservatives are fully capable of returning to first principles to justify their policies and evaluate the objective evidence to show why libertinism and leftism fail.
11 Jun 2005 at 5:20 pm
Abortion I will grant, as even the Left is starting to realize that abortion-up-to-conception isn’t a viable political position. But on the others, the “principled defense” has been just the same old tropes. If anything, gay marriage has been one of the few areas of intellectual vigor on the Left.When you consider how quickly the debate has moved on that issue alone, it’s pretty clear that conservatives are fighting to keep up, rather than leading the way.
12 Jun 2005 at 11:49 am
You didn’t say that conservative intellectualism was blazing new trails; you said that it gained its intellectual vigor from libertarianism. Conservatism is inherently reactionary. It should be no surprise that the major intellectual defenses of conservative positions come when those positions are under assault from those who would undo what has been established. Burke wasn’t writing his Reflections on a lark; he was responding to the Godless anarchy of the precursor to the Terror. Kirk wasn’t just summarizing the history of conservative thinkers; he was actively responding to people like Rawls who had established radical progressivism as the default political philosophy. Conservatives aren’t “fighting to keep up;” they are articulating responses to the fusillades of inanity that spew forth from the Left in defense of “liberte, egalite, fraternite.”
12 Jun 2005 at 11:23 pm
Libertarianism has given the GOP its intellectual vigor?
I’m not sure I get that. Is it libertarian ideology that has motivated Republican politicians to propose, and achieve, a massive expansion in the Department of Education? Or a huge increase in Medicare? Or the Patriot Act and other civil liberties abuses? Or more foreign aid? Etc., etc.
The one area with a serious libertarian imprint is Social Security reform. But, of course, many Republicans in Congress still don’t support that either.
Otherwise, I don’t see much “intellectual vigor” amongst Republican leaders. I do see a lot of pandering, rationalizing, and powerlusting though.
13 Jun 2005 at 10:24 am
James, you characteristically dodged my broader point that social issues legislation does not require “big government,” strictly speaking. All it takes is some ink and a statute book.
The drug thing too is a question of priorities. Drugs can be illegal, and we can also spend less to enforce those laws than we do now. Two separate policies are at work in (1) making them illegal and (2) allocating law enforcement funding to the effort. Whether or not this effort inherently leads to a “war on drugs” and big spending is still a separate issue from the fact that 19th Century era legislation on “blue laws,” abortion, gambling, etc. did not require a megastate to be enacted or to enforce.
14 Jun 2005 at 9:35 am
Ooops, I meant “abortion-up-to-birth” and not conception in my last post.
Leif: Yes, conservatism is inherently reactionary, which is why it’s been the libertarian side of the GOP that has been coming up with new ways of looking at things, giving the party as a whole a heft of intellectual vigor that the Democrats don’t have. If you’ve noticed, the Democrats have turned wholly reactionary as well, scrabbling to protect what they can of the New Deal. That has made them less intellectually compelling. And it gets even worse for that (growing) part of the party that seems to only care about bashing the GOP rather than daring believe in anything but simpleminded tropes.
Roach: Sure, moral legislation only requires ink and a statute book…as does any other law. You seem to think that it’s typical for government to pass a law and then not bother to expend the necessary resources to enforce it. That is wishful thinking, but the drug war alone proves it wrong. The government tends to believe that failure to enforce a law implies to the general population that laws aren’t really that big a deal. And there will always be moral crusaders who believe that allowing any drug use (or alcohol use, or abortion, or gay marriage), even through benign neglect, is absolutely intolerable. These are elements that “corrupt the moral fabric of society,” don’t you remember? What’s a few-score billion and less individual freedom compared to protecting that?
In short, your notion that morals legislation doesn’t necessarily lead to enforcement of that legislation is, kindly, laughable.
14 Jun 2005 at 11:42 am
I agree with James’s last post. And why would anyone want a law passed unless it’s going to be seriously enforced? As an empty symbol of some Platonic ideal? It doesn’t make any sense.
In America, enforcing laws against murder isn’t terribly expensive or destructive because almost everyone already considers murder morally wrong. Despite the ubiquitousness of gory TV shows and movies, people who seriously want to murder or rape anyone else constitute an infinitesimal percentage of the population.
Alternatively, many millions of Americans DON’T consider abortion morally wrong (at least in early pregnancy). Therefore, simply outlawing abortion would mean thousands of women each year having illegal abortions. Enforcing laws that criminalized abortion entirely would require massive government spending and routine Bill of Rights violations. Even then, it would probably be as successful as drug prohibition is today.
Conservatives who think you can have small government AND moral laws (in the religious sense) want to eat their cake and have it, too. It can’t be done.
14 Jun 2005 at 1:02 pm
Tell me the next time someone gets prosecuted for suicide, polygamy, or a host of other on-the-books statutes that are largely aspirational in nature.
14 Jun 2005 at 2:43 pm
Again, one only need look to history for an illumination of the point that, right or wrong, you can have “morals legislation” without big government. No one can seriously contend that there is more such legislation today than in the past, back into the 19th and 18th centuries in the United States. And yet the huge, centralized welfare state we see today in Washington is a relatively recent phenomenon by historical standards — certainly much more recent than the phenomenon of “morals legislation.”
Now, admittedly none of this addresses the question whether aspirational “morals legislation” is desirable, but it does demonstrate that such legislation can in fact exist in the absence of big government.
14 Jun 2005 at 3:48 pm
As of last year, there were “several” polygamy prosecutions in the works in Utah. http://www.cnn.com/2004/LAW/07/29/hamilton.polygamy/index.html And one Utahan fellow got five years in jail back in 2001 for polygamy.
Sure, some morals-based laws don’t get much shrift because the masses view those laws as public jokes, but this notion that such laws can’t or won’t incur huge costs is just silly in light of Prohibition, the drug war, gambling, and other examples. I find it rather funny to hear those who favor such laws suddenly arguing that the main effect of the laws is to be “aspirational,” and not enforced. Please. Enforcement costs will duly increase with the ability of the goverment to convince the people that more enforcement is warranted, and with conservatives (who wanted the laws on the books in the first place) decrying the effect of benign neglect on our country’s “moral fabric,” there will always be a push to increase the amount of resources expended on these things. The reason that suicide isn’t charged very often isn’t because the law is merely meant to be “aspirational,” it’s because prosecutors and legislators know that they will lose credibility if they put as much effort into enforcing that law as they do marijuana possession. Which should be leading people to wondering why the heck we waste ink on these laws at all.
Also, the fact that the welfare/regulatory state sucks up more money does not mean that morals-based legislation can’t become “big government.” The main price paid by enforcement of those laws is in violations of the 4th, 5th, and 6th amendments, not to mention other constitutional concerns (such as the drug war’s breach of the commerce clause). Wiretaps, pen registers, surveillance cameras, secret subpoenas, and other tools may be fairly cheap on the whole, but they come with a heavy price.
14 Jun 2005 at 3:57 pm
Trager: Sorry I didn’t respond to your other post. You are right that the recent expansion of government under conservative auspices tends to weigh against a libertarian influence. However, it’s Republicans on the Hill that are giving a voice to Social Security privatization, Medical Savings Accounts, school choice, and other trailblazing policy ideas. Maybe that’s not much “vigor” without results, but it’s more than the Democrats have.
And indeed, in your last post, you are quite right that it’s a “have cake and eat it too” situation for conservatives to pretend that more morality-based laws can coexist with small government. As the ability to enforce such laws improves, the temptation to dedicate resources to that task is inevitable. Are we really supposed to believe that conservatives advocate passing laws that they have no intention of enforcing? If only it were true!
14 Jun 2005 at 4:13 pm
James, it’s disingenous to say we’re advocating aspirational laws. All I did was say they’re possible, and Roach has, in a previous discussion with you, stated that he generally disfavors laws (like anti-sodomy statutes) that we have no intention of enforcing.
My own view is similar to Roach’s. But, as is often the case, the issue is a complex one, and there are numerous laws in the gray area between murder and sodomy that might be good on the books, but that don’t require some huge, centralized enforcement regime. An example is anti-suicide statutes, which Roach mentioned.
Now, there is an entirely independent issue raised by James — does the mere existence of such laws, while not requiring expensive enforcement, tend to result necessarily in expensive enforcement, just by the way politics and society works? (This would be similar to how a radical libertarian politics does not by its essence require, but does tend to necessarily result in, an authoritarian or totalitarian crackdown.) I would agree with James that the answer tends to be yes. Perhaps the upshot of this is that we should look more favorably on laws that tend NOT necessarily to have this result (like anti-suicide statutes), and less favorably on laws that do (like anti-marijuana statutes). Of course, one could still argue that certain prohibitions (perhaps of crack cocaine?) are so important that we need the laws, regardless of the risks associated with the attendant enforcement regime running amok.
14 Jun 2005 at 5:25 pm
I agree with Wade’s previous remarks. I don’t accept James’ essentialist view of how these laws require increased enforcement and a “big state,” though I concede they may give ammunition and justifications for those that favor such a regime. ThThat said, the historical record is clearly mixed; unless the anti-gambling laws of, say, most US states lead to a huge, overbearing “vice” dep’t of the PD.
Laws have several functions, one of which is to codify community sentiment. They do this automatically and without the necessity of a huge enforcement arm. For things that are necessarily public–strip clubs, gambling halls, etc.–they do most of their work automatically and do not necessitate a megastate. For other activities–it seems especially in the case of drug and alcohol prohibition–such laws tend to encourage increases in government.
Good for Utah on the polygamy prosecutions; polygamy is illiberal, anti-democratic, and un-American. I’ll guess Utah didn’t hire any extra police and prosecutors to handle this burden, however.
14 Jun 2005 at 11:40 pm
I don’t want to get too deep into the philosophy of law. But I disagree that laws have “several functions,” one of which is merely to publicize the majority’s disapproval of certain behaviors. That can be done with a public poll or a resolution.
In a free society at least, laws should protect one’s rights in one’s own person and property, and they should be enforced as efficiently and uniformly as possible. And that’s it. I’m with Frederic Bastiat on this one.
Finally, anti-suicide statutes are very, very dumb. And while I’m not a cheerleader for polygamy, I hardly think it’s “illiberal,” “anti-democratic,” or “un-American.”
15 Jun 2005 at 8:33 am
Wade: “James, it’s disingenous to say we’re advocating aspirational laws.”
Then you can take issue with Roach, who said, “Tell me the next time someone gets prosecuted for suicide, polygamy, or a host of other on-the-books statutes that are largely aspirational in nature.” I was only going by his own characterization of these laws.
Wade: “Now, there is an entirely independent issue raised by James — does the mere existence of such laws, while not requiring expensive enforcement, tend to result necessarily in expensive enforcement, just by the way politics and society works? . . . I would agree with James that the answer tends to be yes.”
Excellent, we are agreed. (The bit on libertarianism we are not, for all the reasons that were painstakingly examined before.)
Roach: “I agree with Wade’s previous remarks. I don’t accept James’ essentialist view of how these laws require increased enforcement and a ‘big state,’ though I concede they may give ammunition and justifications for those that favor such a regime.”
You should re-read Wade’s exact statement, especially the “tend to result necessarily in expensive enforcement” part. I don’t think you agree.
Roach: “Laws have several functions, one of which is to codify community sentiment.”
As Trager said, there are other ways to achieve this, even aside from private action alone. With criminal laws especially, there is no recourse but to engage police or prosecutorial resources at some point. If the law is truly a dead letter, then it spreads the notion amongst the population that laws aren’t really that big a deal and/or that enforcement is arbitrary and capricious. So the laws HAVE to be enforced at some level to maintain the authority of law. None of these laws “do their work automatically,” because words alone will not curtail human action. Enforcement is an inevitability. The only question is one of degree.
Again, I note my amusement over Roach advocating morals-based legislation without enforcement. Maybe this is all just some kind of last-gasp appeal to small government.
15 Jun 2005 at 10:14 am
James, you’re correct regarding my disagreement with Wade on that particular; I think law’s “teaching/community sentiment” function is useful, time-tested, and does not necessarily lead to the “Big State.”
I was thinking about this discussion, and there’s another detail that seems important to me. I agree that these laws entail some enforcement (that is, while aspirational, they’re not purely aspirational), and I agree with you that if they were totally and intentionally unenforced they would bring about a more general disrespect for the law by showing our lack of seriousness about it or its inefficacy. That said, some notion of the public and private realms should temper how laws are enforced and how “morals legislation” generally should do its work. In other words, legislation against gambling halls, strip clubs, sodomy, or whatever–setting aside the merits of any of these laws–tends to prevent the public and open exercise of these things. None of these laws necessarily affects private behavior, which should continue to have its traditional constitutional protection. This is important because public and open behavior tends to make things that are otherwise harmful or looked down upon more normal and therefore less shameful; ultimately, these behaviors will be more widely practiced if they are done so openly. Tthe community, by permitting them, may be seen not to condemn these behaviors. Thus, if the effect of these laws is merely to move certain behavior into the private realm, that would count as a victory and a useful outcome–consistent both with people’s rights and the community’s need for order and standards. I believe this is a fair assessment of how much of this legislation has worked both in the past and in the present. A broad notion of tolerance for what goes on in private, even for petty illegal behavior, that does not openly show contempt for the community and its laws, is an important concomitant of a free society. Even if there were no laws on any of these subjects, what one should feel free to do in public as a matter of prudence and respect for the need for community values should be more circumscribed than what one does in private.
15 Jun 2005 at 10:29 am
Just briefly, I think the type of so-called “morals legislation” determines the likelihood of its necessarily resulting in the “Big State.” As I stated above, anti-suicide laws do not, whereas anti-drug laws probably do. That’s because it’s obviously easier for “Big State” types to advocate a far-flung and expensive drug war; advocating the same type of “suicide war” would be difficult.